As I said in previewing the Panama Championship, it wasn’t a great week at the SDC, but the good news is that the Hotel Planner Tour is back for a second week and we’ve got a chance to turn some serious profit. Last week saw Daniel van Tonder – who I thought was a threat, but possibly not able to score heavily enough to win – pick up a come-from-behind victory, following a five-under 67 in the final round with a playoff win to snatch victory from long-term leader Altin van der Merwe, who shot a 74 in the final round and a double-bogey 7 on the first playoff hole. I backed van der Merwe in the preceding week’s Sunshine Tour event and thank goodness I didn’t suffer a loss like this one. Nevertheless, both players are well worth watching going into next week and the rest of the co-sanctioned events.
A win in a Hotel Planner Tour event guarantees starts through the rest of the season so van Tonder has made significant progress. A second win or a run of good performances in the next three events would put him well on the way to picking up a DPWT card next season, so don’t underestimate the importance for him, and the rest of the South African players. We should also note a strong performance for the Irishman Liam Nolan, solo third is his best professional result in a young career. Galway boy Nolan was part of the 2023 Walker Cup team, and his win in the Brabazon and high finish in the elite European Amateur highlight his early career; he’s worth watching for the remainder of the season. But let’s get on with the preview.
The Tournament
We’re still in the highveld for this week, but a very different test awaits at Pecanwood Estate. This is west of Pretoria and north of Johannesburg, a much less remote setting than last week, and on the banks of the artificial Hartbeespoort lake, formed when a vast irrigation dam was built on the Crocodile River. At the risk of turning this into a tourist preview, it is worth looking at the google images for Hartbeespoort lake. As this is the veld, we’re still at altitude – about 1,200m – and it is still very hot and very dry. It’ll probably be a bit warmer than last week, reaching the mid-thirties Celsius which is well into the nineties Fahrenheit. Not much wind to speak of though it is gustier in the mornings for the first two rounds so you probably want an afternoon starter if you’re chasing FRL money.
The course is new to the Challenge Tour, though a one-off edition of the MyGolfLife Open was held here in 2022, co-sanctioned with the main DPWT. That was won by Pablo Larrazabal, who took out a three man playoff ahead of Jordan Smith and Adri Arnaus – the last of whom is here for this – after all three reached -22. Curiously for a course that’s hosted an event of that significance, this isn’t a regular stop on the Sunshine Tour so we don’t have much to work on. Larrazabal putted particularly well that week, gaining around two shots per round, but the leaderboard is littered with approach specialists (as well as the runners-up, Nacho Elvira, Ross Fisher and Thriston Lawrence,) all got high up the board with their usual excellence with irons.
Nor should the second-shot focus be a surprise, this is a Jack Nicklaus course and, as you’d expect from the Golden Bear, we’ve got wide fairways, fast greens and (being beside a lake) lots of water. The scores demonstrate that this isn’t the toughest Nicklaus design around, and at this altitude a 7,697 yard par 72 is actually pretty short. All of the par fives, other than the 636 yard seventh are two-shot holes for most players, whilst the majority of par fours will be wedge or short-iron approaches. Clearly excellent putting will help whilst in these fast conditions players may need to scramble but I’m really looking for approach shots. I may regret saying this, but as few South Africans have regular experience on this course and the design is more “international” than some courses, I’m not convinced the home crew will have as much of an advantage as in most of these events.
The Field
With a very few exceptions, this is the same field as last week. We’ve got the same mix of Challenge Tour regulars and newbies, and the Sunshine Tour boys. However, one of the exceptions is a huge one, and the comfortable favourite for this event. Shaun Norris is stepping back to Challenge Tour level having won three starts ago in the Alfred Dunhill, the DPWT/Sunshine co-sanctioned event at Leopard Creek. That was his 11th professional win and this prolific veteran splits his time between the DPWT, CT, Japan Tour and Sunshine Tour and is a threat on all those tours. He putts excellently, is long enough and is accurate from most distances. He’s coming here from two good starts in the middle east.
So why aren’t I backing him? Well, partly the price – 10/1 is very short in an event like this – and partly his reliance on putting on what is really a second shot course. I’m also put off by a poor performance here in 2022, when he finished 47th. Yes, he’s on good form now, but he was then, too – he’d win his next start at DPWT level and had recently been ninth in Ras al Khaimah and third in the Joburg Open. Not every player likes every course and this may not suit him. He’s certainly got a chance but I’ll be price proud and avoid him.
Wilco Nienaber is also a short price and again, I think a tougher driving test will suit him better, accuracy into the greens is not his strength. Daniel van Tonder comes here off a win that we’ve already discussed, and I couldn’t put you off backing him again, but he missed the cut in 2022 and again may not be a strong enough iron player. Of those who are short in the market but didn’t make the cut, Adri Arnaus (33/1) was excellent here last time, is a great player for this grade and is feared, but his recent form just isn’t good enough. Max Steinlechner continued his good form last week and is another threat but is perhaps too short at 20/1. At bigger prices, Santiago Tarrio (100/1) and local boy Jovan Rebula (70/1) appealed as overpriced and well-suited to the challenge. In the end I don’t want to say anything against them, they just didn’t quite appeal as much as my three selections.
The Selections
As I said, there’s fewer obvious reasons to back South Africans than normal, as this is the sort of course that all players will be used to, and there will be very little course knowledge across the whole field. Obviously some advantages from climate, home comforts and familiarity with altitude can be expected but my suspicion is that they’re baked into the price. So I’m picking three “visitors,” beginning with Filippo Celli, newly returned to the Challenge Tour after narrowly losing his DPWT card last season. Still only 24, the Italian is strong off the tee, and I would describe the rest of his game as “streaky”. In aggregate, he’s an above average putter and iron player for this level (in June and July last year he had three consecutive top tens at DPWT level) but he missed more than his share of cuts and can certainly be poor. He looked back to something like his best on two excellent starts in Australia on the DPWT in December, and he knocked off some rust with a 50th place last week. This set-up should suit him better, and at the price he’s a likely winner.
My second pick is another youngster, this time the 23-year-old German Freddy Schott. Like Celli, he’s newly returned from a poor (though sporadically promising) DPWT season, and he’s still young enough to prove he’s too good for this level. He was fifth in Mauritius among three great DPWT performances in December and although he was cut at Ras al Khaimah, he had four rounds to get ready while competing in elite company and can go much better here as he, like Norris, steps down in class. The price suggests that his return to South Africa hasn’t made the impact on the bookmakers that it did on me.
Finally, we’re taking a bit of a leap into the unknown with Palmer Jackson. He was poor in the SDC Open on his first start at Challenge Tour level but the young American nearly won his DPWT card at Q-school, coming through all three rounds and missing out by just two strokes over the six rounds of final stage. A college star at Notre Dame, he was eighth in the 2024 NCAAs, and a highly ranked (42nd in the world) amateur. You have to be willing to overlook a poor performance last week but this is a more orthodox test and I have a suspicion that we’re dealing with a youngster who is far more talented than a cursory glance at his record suggests. Certainly he’s not priced as one of the best in the field and I’m hoping to take advantage of that.
Filippo Celli, 30/1
Freddy Schott, 28/1
Palmer Jackson, 100/1
All 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365.
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