It’s been lovely of Nate to invite me to this site and mention my “expertise” on the lesser-known tours, but it has been a really poor start to my tipping since I joined. In my substack week I talk about the psychological aspects of betting on golf, betting at long odds and learning lessons from poor runs of form. I hope it repays your time reading it. What matters, though, is that we return to profit, and the first of this week’s previews takes us to Colombia as we attempt to do just that.
We’re coming off a week in which the calm conditions in Panama City saw twenty six players finish below par (19 last year, 7 in 2023) and my selections performing poorly as all were better designed to bomb and gauge in awful conditions. I mentioned improved weather but still expected more resistance from this course. Christo Lamprecht remains a confounding talent but until his iron play improves he isn’t backable at the prices available. As to the top of the leaderboard, Johnny Keefer has shown that he does indeed have the talent to compete at this level, whilst Hank Lebioda moved ever closer to a Tour card and Josh Teater and Dylan Wu showed the value of experience when taking on a tough course. Pierceson Coody’s final round 75 dropped him out of the places and was a relief as I nearly backed him and decided against it. I thought he had this won.
The Tournament
A very different challenge awaits this week in Bogota. The event in Colombia’s capital is played over two courses, the more challenging Lagos (lakes) course hosting the final two rounds and half the field for each of the first two, with the other round being played on the Pacos course. The Pacos plays to 6,254 yards at par 70 and was the location of Cristobal del Solar’s 57 last year, whilst the Lagos course is harder but far from challenging. It is a 7,237 yard par 71, and last year it gave up multiple rounds of 63. So whilst our leaders will need to score heavily on the Pacos course an aggregate of -20 or better will be needed this week.
There is little wind to speak of and conditions will be quite cool at around 16-to-19 Celsius (60s Fahrenheit) and with some rain likely each afternoon. Hopefully this won’t cause play to be delayed. We are at extreme altitude here (around 2,600m, some 1,000m higher than Denver) and that’ll certainly cause the balls to fly further. I’ve no doubt that some players will struggle to adjust to these conditions but is very hard to predict who’ll be suited and who won’t – although course form is a useful indicator.
Despite being short courses at altitude, bombers have a good record here. The 2022 winner was Vincent Norrman, whilst the likes of Ricky Castillo and the aforementioned del Solar went well last year. However, Brian Campbell was second last year and is one of the shortest hitters on the KFT circuit, and the winner Kevin Velo isn’t long. Ultimately we’re looking at a bit of a putting competition, and getting onto the green effectively, whether by playing decent wedge and iron shots from the fairway or bombing and gouging. Probably not a huge surprise that this event has some meaningful course comparisons with Boise and Utah, played later in the season and at altitude.
The field
The market is headed by Pierceson Coody and this week I found him easier to swerve. Although he played well in Utah in 2023 his record away from the coast is generally poor and he was cut from this event last year. He’s clearly in form but I’d want a much longer price to back him in an event that is unlikely to suit. Dylan Wu and Hank Lebioda were harder to pass over but again have poor records here and are priced on recent performances which were at very different courses. Further down the market, Johnny Keefer was one of the last names off my team-sheet, and I think he’s reasonably priced at 30/1. If he’d played here before, I’m sure I’d be backing him.
With a strong field in Phoenix this is a very typical course for the KFT this season and despite the event being in some ways unusual (altitude, incredibly short course for one day, early in the season) I think this will be a useful guide for the rest of the year – and if you look at the last few leaderboards, a good performance here does correspond closely to making it to the PGA Tour. There are few courses on the schedule where you can win without scoring incredibly heavily below par, and we’ve seen three of them already. So whilst there are lessons that can be brought here about recent form, bear in mind that we’re not by the coast, we’re not at sea level, it won’t be warm and you’ll need around three shots-per-round fewer against par to win this week.
Selections
With some very attractive options at longer prices, I couldn’t get down to fewer than four selections here, beginning with the second favourite, Kensei Hirata. As I said last week, I think Hirata will prove to be the best player in this year’s KFT class and he was excellent in finishing 17th in Panama on a course that was far too long to suit. Returning to a course that should suit, it is worth remembering that he was second in the Great Abaco and 21st in the Sony Open on the main tour. His 2024 season in Japan featured four wins and the requisite ultra-low scoring (seventh for birdie or better percentage, fifth for scoring average, fifth for greens in regulation) with his wins coming at -25, -22, -19 and -11, the last being in a 36-hole event. I can’t see much evidence that he’s played at altitude but that’s my only concern and he’s a confident pick at the price.
Already into huge odds, Sudarshan Yellamaraju is priced as though his win in the Bahamas was a fluke. Not forgetting what I said about how different this week’s event is, I don’t believe his was a lucky win and I would not be in the least bit surprised if he competed again. After wisely skipping the Panama event he comes here refreshed and hungry and clearly in great form. His 51st here last year wasn’t exceptional but it was his best result in a weak start to the season and he was 19th after the first two rounds, so we know he can perform here. Playing far better and believing in his ability this time around, he should go closer.
Another youngster at the same price who I want on my team is Jonas Baumgartner. The 23-year-old German was a standout at Oklahoma State – ranked 23rd in the world as an amateur, and his best professional results have come where he can show his skill driving and putting, including when finishing fifth in the Big Green Egg on the Challenge Tour. Finished second in the Big 12 championship in 2023, which sounds ordinary until you realize that the only guy to beat him was Ludwig Aberg. So far this season Jonas has finished 53rd, seventh and 54th. So for all he hasn’t shown consistent excellence he’s proved he can compete at this level and I think he will enjoy an easier test.
Finally, I can’t ignore the insulting price available about Cole Hammer. He has been ordinary to start this season (Cut, 54th, Cut) but that was true last year (63rd, Cut, 27th) before he finished sixth in this event. The best result of his career was in the 2022 RSM Classic in which he finished fifth, leading after round one. That was through heavy scoring and great putting on the short Plantation Course. He was similar here last year, we know he handles altitude, and this driving and putting test is perfect for this former Longhorn. The others can't touch this. o we'll stop. Hammertime.
· Kensei Hirata, 22/1
· Sudarshan Yellamaraju, 100/1
· Jonas Baumgartner, 100/1
· Cole Hammer, 140/1.
All 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365.
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