I hate to sound ungrateful after putting two guys in the top ten from three picks, but hard not to be frustrated that Tyler Duncan couldn’t quite come through with a place at 80/1, whilst S.H. Kim once again grabbed second for me, this time at 45/1. I suspect he will win on one of these courses, but his odds are starting to come back in line with his ability at this level. That said, Justin Suh made it look very straightforward with a dominant performance over the final two rounds and won comfortably. Easy to be wise after the event, but he certainly fitted the type of player I was looking for and I’ll continue to back short-hitting, PGA-level players in this event and hope for better luck next year.
Moving onto the forthcoming event, we stay in South America and move west to Santiago, capital of Chile, for the Chile Classic which is held at the Prince of Wales Course and making a third consecutive appearance on the KFT schedule. It’s a wide open event and I took longer figuring out my picks for this tournament than for any of my other previews on this site, as it was so hard to rule out any type of player with ease. Make of that what you will, and let’s get into it.
The Tournament
As mentioned, this is the third edition of this event as a KFT tournament, after an abortive run between 2012 and 2015. The last two have been won by Ben Kohles and Taylor Dickson, and both have come down to playoffs. In benign conditions, Kohles got to -21 whilst Dickson reached -17 a year later. Neither event has seen huge separation in the field by scoring, and both have seen limited success from local players; this seems to be a US-dominated event. It is also notable that both winners would go on to win in the USA later in the season en route to winning a card.
So, we have a sense of what we’re looking for, especially if you’re familiar with the games of Kohles and Dickson. This is a course that’s about approaches, and has little unusual in the setup. At 6,929 yards for par 70 (with a bit of altitude,) you don’t need to bomb it – but it won’t hurt, as high finishes for the likes of Tim Widing and Ricky Castillo demonstrate. There wasn’t a lot of coverage in either of the last two years, but players (and reviews elsewhere) talk about a traditional parkland course, with lots of greens guarded by front bunkers. Hitting fairways, then playing good high wedges into the smallish greens is the route to success here – just as it will be at many courses to come on this tour this year, hence the prolonged success of Dickson and Kohles.
There’s no wind to speak of and things are going to be hot, which makes the sloped greens even more challenging, so clearly we’re looking for decent putting and scrambling. But, as I say, this is a course where excellence is going to be rewarded. Now that we’re into the third edition, some course form might start coming through but I won’t be backing anyone who I don’t think is good enough to gain a tour card – other than slightly reducing my interest in length from the tee, this is pretty well a “pick some guys you think are underrated in the market” betting week.
Selections
So, bypassing my usual look at the betting markets (they are basically right, and I have only excluded players on price grounds, I don’t think there’s anyone without a chance) let’s get to my picks, noting only that Rob Oppenheim (decent record here, good last week but hasn’t won in a decade) and Pontus Nyholm (rock solid, good here, but hasn’t won with four years of trying.) First to make the list, and joining Ayora, Campbell and van Tonder in my recommended e/w Yankee for the week, is T.J. Vogel, who is making his third start here, having finished 25th and 11th previously. He’s a great example of the sort of player who’ll benefit from course experience, and he also brings KFT winning form (the 2022 Club Car Championship, at Landings CC, not dissimilar in style) and comes here with a competitive but not mentally exhausting 25th in Argentina last week – a third consecutive top 25 for a player who is trending back towards his best and enjoys this event. He’s just a rock-solid KFT veteran who knows his game and knows this challenge, and I think the market has overlooked him.
Second, I’m ignoring my own advice about experience and backing Runchanapong Youprayong. For those of you who’ve stuck with me for a while and have a perfect memory, I backed him in the second stage of Q-school at Hammock Beach, where he picked up place money in fifth. The young Thai golfer has all sorts of talent, and is yet to really pop in the rankings because since turning pro (he played at South Florida) he’s been splitting time between the Thai, Asian and Asian Development Tours. After finishing fourth (Asian Development) and third (Thai) on his first two starts of the season he was 44th in Argentina. I think he’s better than that and I think he could show it here. He’s one of the longer Asian players (295 yard driving average puts him towards the top of the ADT rankings) but like many from his part of the world he’s primarily a tidy golfer from tee-to-green. There aren’t many bits of better form in this field than second in the Taiwan Open (Asian Tour) last November, which is played at Taifong, a tight, wooded par 72, 7,302 yard course that is just like this one. He’s good enough and I’d much rather back him whilst he’s still springing a surprise and the majority of punters are trying to work out how to spell his name.
Finally, we’re adding a Canadian who is starting to play like a veteran as he enters his thirtieth year, Myles Creighton. He’s a generous price in part because he missed the cut – on the number – in Argentina last week. Well, he was 58th in Argentina last year and then eighth in Chile, so we know this event suits him much better. He’s coming in with some decent form, too, 13th in Bogota at the Astara. He played extensively across Latin America on what is now the PGA Tour of the Americas, picking up his lone professional win to date in Colombia in 2023. Last year he started the season strongly but faded to 45th in the KFT rankings and failed to make the big show. I think he’ll get his card this year and I think a win in his beloved Latin America will go a long way to achieving that target.
T.J. Vogel 55/1, 1pt e/w, 1/4 odds 5 places, Bet365.
Runchanapong Youprayong, 66/1 1pt e/w, 1/5 odds 6 places, Unibet.
Myles Creighton, 110/1 1pt e/w, 1/4 odds 5 places, Bet365.
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