Andrew's Abu Dhabi Challenge (HPT) Preview (2025)

After a very frustrating run, it was gratifying to see some signs of life from last week’s picks, with Adri Arnaus (25/1, quarter odds) and Dan Erickson (90/1, fifth odds) both giving full place returns. It could, however, have been so much worse, as Erickson held the outright lead before being left in the dirt by his two playing partners, JC Ritchie and the eventual winner, Renato Paratore. The Italian, for all he’s just a couple of years older, had experience on his side, as a two-time DPWT winner. He’s been in the wilderness for a while but is further proof, were it needed, that winning experience can be critical. As for Erickson, he’s now been in the final group in Singapore at the DPWT level and last week, and he’s gradually gaining the experience needed in these pressure situations.

The good news for this week is that we’re looking at a more familiar course, and a field very similar to last week’s. Let’s hope that the familiarity gives us an edge as we seek to keep the momentum up, and let’s get into it.

The Tournament

The whole caravan has picked up and moved around 200km, inland. Unusual to be describing an event in this part of the world as happening away from the coast, but insofar as that can be done in the UAE, it will be. Al Ain is the host, and it is the last city before the Omani border. You probably won’t be surprised, on that basis, to hear that it is going to be warm and dry. It will be slightly windy, especially on Thursday and particularly in the afternoons. We might conceivably see a draw bias (early/late favoured) but I don’t think it’ll be significant. Conditions look typical, which is to say, scoring, for the rest of the week.

The host course is Al Ain Equestrian, Shooting and Golf Club (what do the well-heeled non-golfing Emiratis and ex-pats do if they can’t yacht? They ride and shoot, which makes sense.) We were here last year, and the course has also hosted a bunch of regional events and some decent amateur fare, including the Faldo Series. Most relevantly, we also saw the Clutch Tour (which is a feeder for the HPT) visit in March. That was a 54-hole tournament won at -12 by Callum Farr. The sheer amount of digging needed to find results is the kind of thing that gives the relentless punter an edge on this tour, but you can have the full leaderboard without effort. Notable that Mark Power, who was sixth last week, also managed solo eighth in that event and has some “hidden” recent course knowledge. Farr also competes, along with Ashley Chesters and John Gough, who were among those tied for fourth.

Last year, the event was won by Garrick Porteous at 256 (-24), one shot ahead of Alexander Levy and a further shot clear of Nicolai Kristensen. It isn’t a particularly informative leaderboard, in truth – there are some quality players, but you can’t really claim the cream rises to the top without exception. You can’t point at length, or accuracy, or putting, and say what the key attribute is. This is a 7,117 yard par 70 and it is just a bit… meh. Clearly scoring heavily is an advantage and there are some players for whom that comes more naturally than others. Pars won’t win this. It is worth noting that there are three par fives and five par threes, so even on a par 70 heavy scoring on the fives is still possible but you’ll need to have a tidy mid-iron game for the range of mostly similar par 3s (172, 187, 193, 194 and 200 yards.) Ultimately, though, I’m looking for players in good form who can score birdies by the bucket, and anyone offering more detailed analysis than that either has proprietary statistics, has visited the course, or is making it up.

Field and Selections

The market was predictably late, but thank goodness for Bet365 giving me something to work off while I waited for alternative price markets. Bet365 are 18/1 Ritchie and Arnaus, 20/1 Filippo Celli and 22/1 or bigger the field. That’s open even for an HPT event, and also speaks to the bookies sharing my uncertainty over course fit. There are bombers (Celli, Wilco Nienaber, Freddy Schott) to the front of the market, as well as the more experienced, accuracy-driven players (Ritchie, Arnaus, Euan Walker, George Coetzee.) I could make a case for any of those, but before I saw prices I expected all to be shorter than I wanted. Coetzee at 28/1 gave me pause. I had seriously considered backing Callum Farr (28/1) given his Clutch Tour win here, one of three recently. He was 20th on his first HPT start last week and that’s all very eye-catching but the price put me off.

It is, though, an unusual week. I had six at the top of my list before I saw prices, and while Farr and Oihan Guillaumondeguy (55/1) were written out for not providing value, leaving out Will Besseling (80/1, 15th here last year, classy) was difficult. As regular readers will know, I try very hard to limit my selections to three. Well, not this week. I’ve ended up with five picks, although I’m comforted that all are at big enough prices to make places appealing. Three men did make it from my longlist, but we’ll start with two golfers who I didn’t think I’d want at what I considered likely prices. Either my expectations were wrong, or the bookies have got it wrong. 

The first of these is Dan Erickson, who I talked about extensively last week, after which he shot 68/69/63 to lead after three rounds before wrapping up solo third with a 71. I covered off the need to get into these positions before winning in the introduction, so confident was I that I wouldn’t be backing him. 25/1 and not worth it, I thought. Well, the prices came out and he’s on my list. 

He's joined there by Mark Power. I mentioned that he was eighth here in March on the Clutch Tour, and sixth (67/67/69/71) last week. Again, I thought he’d be prohibitively short. Last season was his first full year as a pro and he mostly looked ordinary on the Challenge Tour, but he’s clearly rounded into much better form this year. Just 24, he was third in The Amateur Championship (at Royal Birkdale in 2020) and twice a Walker Cup participant during a four year spell at Wake Forest. He’s potentially very good, is in great form, knows the course and should be half the available price.

Going back to the original list, I wanted to side with Davis Bryant for very similar reasons to Erickson last week (and this.) He’s just awfully good and well-suited to a conventional test.  This course is college-esque. Bryant, who went to Colorado State is well-used to hilly and artificially irrigated courses. In truth he wasn’t a star at college but he’s kicked on since (he’s only 25,) knocking in a final round 62 to take third in Q-school last autumn having gone through all three rounds of qualifying. He started the year a bit patchily, jumping between the HPT and DPWT as so many do, but has rounded into form recently, with a sixth in Delhi and a 26th last week. That’s not his ceiling and I think a second week of similar conditions, and a focus on going really low, can see him take his position towards the very top of the leaderboard.

Jean Bekirian is another graduate from Q-School who is spending plenty of time on the HPT, and has slipped further under the radar than I think is reasonable. Don’t be fooled by the flag on data golf, Bekirian is the first golfer of any stature to emerge from Armenia. Last year he played on the progolf tour, which includes a bunch of events previously part of the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) Tour, and his results in this part of the world are noteworthy. This year he’s missed a bunch of cuts, but apart from 13th in MyGolfLife (a low scoring event, but in Hartebeesport, South Africa) his best results have been 42nd in Qatar in the DPWT and 26th last week. That last came after an opening 73, and he clearly found something following that weak start, finishing -10 for the last 54 holes. Still only 22 he has been a pro for a number of years but is starting to find his feet. His ability to score birdies in chunks and his love of desert golf mean he’s overpriced here by my assessment.

Finally, I can’t be without Albin Bergstrom who I again picked last week (it is going to be very unusual for me to take two players back to back weeks but I’m led by prices.) Bergstrom was a classic example of my biggest theory on this tour – avoiding bogeys is a rarer skill than making birdies, and a much bigger determinant of success. He finished 37th (and was seventh after round one) despite dropping two, six, three and three shots each day. Paratore’s charge up the leaderboard began on Saturday, and he dropped just one shot over the weekend and seven in total. Can Bergstrom tidy up? Well, the course is easier, he’s played four competitive rounds for the first time in months, and I still think he’s better than most of those he’s up against. If he can dominate the 12 par fives and minimise mistakes, this could easily be his week.

• Dan Erickson, 50/1, 1pt e/w, 1/5 odds 6 places, Unibet

• Davis Bryant, 50/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365

• Jean Bekirian, 150/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365

• Mark Power, 125/1, 1pt e/w, 1/5 odds 6 places, Unibet

• Albin Bergstrom, 175/1, 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365