So, before I get into the betting for the SDC Open, two bits of business. The first is to introduce myself, and the second is to introduce the Challenge Tour.
I’m Andrew. I’m a long-time punter and periodic writer-about-sports. My first real sporting love was cricket, but I got into horse racing and spent most of my twenties watching the nags. I still do, but not so obsessively. I also spent quite a while as a big fan of pro cycling and wrote for Podium Café for a number of years. These days, my big punting passion is golf. I’ve never played, though I spent four years living in St. Andrews and these days live pretty close to Royal St. Georges. I think of myself as a small(ish) stakes, long odds punter, looking for long-term profit through occasional big wins. Which, of course, suits golf perfectly. I do follow other sports - cricket and horse racing still - but also American football (fly Eagles fly!) and biathlon, but basically bet only on horse racing and golf. Apart from that, I’m a husband and dad and a part-time financial consultant/accountant. That’s quite enough of that.
I’m here to cover the Korn Ferry and the Challenge Tour but I’ll post my picks for the PGA and the DP World Tour in the community wagers page of the OoTR Discord, and I also have plenty of picks over the year on the Asian Tour/International Series, LIV, amateur events and my beloved Sunshine Tour. Oh, and I try and cover Q-school events too, which far too many people skip. All my bets are covered in detail on my substack ,so subscribe if you want more picks and more tours than I’ll put on this site.
It’s probably worth adding that these Tours never have DFS pricing so there won’t be any fantasy advice, and I’ll be posting prices from UK bookmakers. Do let me know in the US if prices are very different or if markets aren’t available. Whilst Korn Ferry odds tend to be out at a reasonable time, we’ll sometimes have to wait for Challenge Tour odds so you’ll need to bear with me if articles aren’t posted as soon as I’d like.
The Challenge Tour
Many of you will know this, so feel free to skip over it, but I suspect it will be new terrain for a fair number of punters. Crudely, it is to the DP World Tour as the Korn Ferry Tour is to the PGA. As someone who loves the knowledge edge available over most bettors if you delve into slightly more obscure markets, it is my favorite tour bar none. They have a new sponsor so, from this year, it is the Hotel Planner Tour (sigh.) As with the DPWT, the social media game leaves the US versions in the dirt, so follow them on X/Twitter/Bluesky/wherever else you look. They noted recently that 106-of-the-126 guys who played the Dubai Desert Classic are CT alumni. That’s a record the KFT doesn’t come close to, in part because the PGA imports from the DPWT and in part because the college game doesn’t really exist in Europe. That said, plenty of the youngsters – European and otherwise – on the CT have some US college experience so you may spot some familiar names.
This season is slightly bulked up on last year but follows a broadly similar format. There are four events coming up that are co-sanctioned with the Sunshine Tour and take place on four very different courses around South Africa. March sees two events in India (co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour of India, another fun betting option) and April has two events in the Middle East. The majority of the season is the 18 European events between May and September, then there are two events with restricted fields and more points in China, and the season-ending tournament in Majorca. The season-long points competition (Road to Majorca) qualifies around 50 into the final event from which 20 cards for the DPWT are available.
Three wins leads to a “battlefield promotion” onto the DPWT which both Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen and John Parry won last year. If you want even more about the graduates last year, I wrote a very long piece considering all of them which is worth a read for your DPWT punting consideration. Coming into this season, there is the usual mix of returning CT players, guys dropping down from the DPWT, new amateurs-turned-pro and those who’ve won promotion from lower tours (of which the Nordic Golf League has recently been by far the most successful.) In a different piece previewing the season I picked Filippo Celli, Max Kennedy and Albin Bergstrom as Challenge Tour players to keep a close eye on. Don’t forget, however, that the first six events will feature experienced professionals from other tours who’ll be much more familiar with the conditions being faced, and will be playing in what are particularly significant events for them. There’s a decent conveyor belt of players using these co-sanctioned events to earn a (northern hemisphere) summer of European Golf on the premier feeder tour, so they shouldn’t be discounted.
Finally, it is worth noting that the DPWT has too many members, and with various LIV and PGA players joining a number of events, you can expect to see plenty of players stepping down, especially those who won a card at Q-school. The entry list is split by category of membership, and as can be seen for Ras al Khaimah, two of the 22 players who won the Road to Majorca cards (category 15) aren’t in the field, and neither are the 21 players who won Q-school cards (categeory 18.) These players are by definition among the highest performing in any given Challenge Tour event.
SDC Open
The Event
We’re at Zebula Country Club this week, which puts us in the high bushveld, north of Johannesburg towards the Botswana/Zimbabwe borders. This is at altitude (1,100m and higher) so the ball will travel. It is going to be scorching hot – 30 degrees plus (mid-90s, I think?), not too much wind to contend with, and bone dry. This is typical South African golf with baked fairways and all manner of flora and fauna off the fairways. It is unusually flat for the region. The Sunshine Tour twitter feed right now is full of images that will make you desperate to go down there and combine a safari with watching the golf!
The course itself is a reasonably new one – built in 2003 – and has hosted the SDC Open since 2022. It has always been a co-sanctioned event between the Challenge Tour and Sunshine Tour, and the first events were won respectively by Clement Sordet and J.J. Senekal. Rhys Enoch, a Welshman based in South Africa for much of the year, won last year ahead of Deon Germishuys and Martin Rohwer, on a leaderboard that suggest a strong advantage for players used to these conditions and in mid-season form. Senekal’s 263 (-25) is the lowest score, but at least -21 has been needed to win every year and with calm conditions for 2025 there’s no reason to think that’ll change. There was also a Virgin Origins of Golf event here in 2023, held over three rounds and in August, when the course was damper and the field weaker, but Jacques Kruyswijk still got to -13 for a win.
As far as what’s needed to win, the results are pretty inconclusive. As a par 72 track at 7,469 yards this is actually short, given the altitude. That said, there are plenty of long hitters among those to the top of leaderboards, with the likes of Wilco Nienaber and Josh Berry close to the top last year, and attacking the par fives is essential, as always. Equally, the accurate but short Deon Germishuys was runner-up and previous winners Senekal and Kruyswijk aren’t bombers. Length helps, and scrambling helps, but it seems that accurate approach play, streaky putting (on grainy greens) and a comfort with seriously low scoring are the key attributes.
The Field
It is very hard to say who should be favorite here, as we’ve essentially got three “buckets”. Bucket A is the regular Sunshine Tour players, some of whom are very good indeed. The true elite of South African golf (the LIV, PGA and DPWT regulars) are absent but the likes of Daniel van Tonder, Jonothan Broomhead and Yurav Premlall are enough to give a serious threat. Bucket B is made up of players who were here last year as Challenge Tour members, but didn’t quite manage to win their cards (for the year, I like Oihan Guillaumondeguy and Lucas Vacarisas very much.) They have a blend of regional experience and quality. Bucket C, meanwhile, is the guys who are either dropping down from the DPWT or stepping up into it – expect to see the likes of Adri Arnaus and Eddie Pepperell from the main tour. This is where we can expect to see some extraordinary talent but less knowledge of conditions.
Now the bookies have had their say, we can see that the top of the sporting index market is headed by former champion Clement Sordet (11/1), who last played just before Christmas, finishing 13th in the tricky and linksy Mauritius Open one grade up on the DPWT. That, and re-qualifying for the main tour at Q-School were among the few bright spots in a weak 2024 and despite his record here, and in Africa more generally, I’m unconvinced the French veteran can sink enough putts to win here. Wilco Nienaber (12/1), a bomber who also picked up a card at Q-school is next and is also a threat. He was seventh here last year but for me he’s still unpolished and I would want longer odds and a more challenging course to support him. Of greater interest is Daniel van Tonder (12/1), experienced and in great form on the Sunshine Tour (second at Mediclinic last week, two wins this season) but he finished 36th here last year and hasn’t got the best record in co-sanctioned Challenge Tour events. Bet365 have Nienaber (10/1) as favorite and JC Ritchie (12/1), who I fear won't have the class in this field, as second best. They are the longest price on all of my selections.
I have every confidence that I’ll be backing Filippo Celli (22/1) plenty this season but he’s barely competed in Africa and although he showed great form on the DPWT in Australia I don’t like the price available. Max Steinlechner, who I’ll be watching all season, also appealed hugely as he’s coming off a win on the Sunshine Tour (he came down early, sensible chap) and probably would have won a DPWT card after the 2024 season if he’d played a full CT season, but his time was split between the main tour and the feeder circuit. Again, though, price was a concern.
Without going through every man in the field, I found it fairly easy to pick just three at the prices. First is Yurav Premlall, who is among the best of the local talents. He was fifth in the Mediclinic last week, finishing 65-64 to surge up the field. He’s now just 21 so his struggles in this event last year are forgivable – since then he’s won on the Sunshine Tour and picked up top 20s in elite company at the DPWT (in the Dunhill Championship) and International Series (Qatar.) That combination of bushveld knowledge, high talent and recent form was more than enough for me.
If a bomber is to compete (Premlall isn’t the longest) then Gerhard Pepler is one that the market may have overlooked, at a very appealing 125/1. He has solid course form (third in the VOG event in 2023, 16th in this last year,) returned from a break with a decent enough 29th finish at the Mediclinic and ranks second on the Sunshine Tour for driving distance. His 2024 was quiet by his high standards, but having broken into the main Sunshine Tour on the back of three wins on the Big Easy (feeder) tour in 2022 he won in 2023 and showed enough at the end of last season to give me confidence he’s ready to surge forward again. His home course is Mogol Golf Club, one of the few in South Africa that is more remote and more northern than Zebula, so it is no surprise that he goes well here. This is a pure price and value pick on a player I think a lot of.
Third and finally, I’m taking a visiting player, but one with a real affinity for South African golf. Lorenzo Scalise (90/1) made the leap to the DPWT for 2024 after a number of years on the Challenge Tour, with a fantastic 2023 highlighted by a win at the Kaskada Challenge and six other finishes in the top five, including three in South Africa. He was fifth at the SDC in 2023 and 12th in 2022. His 2024 season on the DPWT was poor, but it is noteworthy that his best result came at the Magical Kenya (11th) whilst he made the cut in all but two of his seven starts in Africa. He went well enough at Q-school to suggest he can return to the top of the tree on the Challenge Tour this season and I was pleased to see that the bookmakers appear to have ignored his course form and success in similar events.
Selections
Yurav Premlall, 20/1.
Gerhard Pepler, 125/1.
Lorenzo Scalise, 90/1.
All 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365.
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