By: Jake Friedman
Introduction
The PGA Tour heads to Monterey, California for this week’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am. This week is an elevated event with a smaller field and no cut. Previously, this used to be a 3 course rotation where the amateurs were done after the 3rd day which left the pros to battle it out on Sunday to lift the trophy. This year the tournament has converted to a 2 course rotation (Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill) where the amateurs will be dropped after day 2. Both weekend rounds will be played at Pebble Beach.
Last year’s showing of this event was cut short after 54 holes due to inclement weather. Wyndham Clark is the defending champion of this event. The field this week is the strongest we’ve seen so far with the likes of Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy making their 2025 PGA Tour debuts.
Pebble Beach is a par 72 that measures roughly 7,000 yards and has poa greens. Overall driving generally isn’t important at this course which is super rare to see throughout the season. The main focus will be on short irons/wedges and putting.
Spyglass Hill is a par 72 that also measures roughly 7,000 yards and has poa greens. Unlike Pebble Beach, driving distance tends to lead to better scoring here. Since there is only one round being played here, I don’t think it’s a requirement for a winning stat profile, rather it’s a nice bonus. Similar to Pebble Beach short irons/wedges and putting will be important to scoring.
Early forecasts are showing some inclement weather coming through Friday afternoon and sticking around throughout the weekend. This is going to be important to monitor as we get closer to the start of the tournament. If the forecast holds from what we are seeing now, I would lean players who are starting at Pebble Beach on Thursday and moving over to Spyglass Hill on Friday for tougher conditions.
DFS
10k Range
Collin Morikawa ($10,200) - Since ownership in this range is usually high for each player, I’m going with the safest player this week in Collin Morikawa. We’ve only seen Morikawa once this season where he finished second at The Sentry. He gained across the board and had a very strong outing where he was bested by the lowest score in a PGA Tour event in its history. His history at Pebble Beach is rather small with a T35 back in 2019 at the U.S. Open and a T-14 last year. Morikawa brings an extremely well rounded game that includes accuracy off the tee, elite iron play, and an above average short game. This tournament should suit Morikawa well and I full expect him to contend this week.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 5th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 19th
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 42nd
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 10th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 73rd
9k Range
Justin Thomas ($9,800) - I’m starting out with what I think is going to be a popular 2 headed DFS monster this week and going with JT in this range. He’s another player that has the skill set to succeed at Pebble Beach. In his 2 starts in 2025, Thomas has finishes of T26 at The Sentey and solo second at The American Express. His history at Pebble Beach is 2 missed cuts back in 2014 and 2019 and then a T6 last year. In his 2 starts this season JT has shown positive signs with the flat stick which is extremely promising coming into this week. He’s a bit wild off the tee at times which won’t play much of a factor this week and he is an elite iron player. Similar to Morikawa, this tournament should suit him well and I expect him to contend this week.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 25th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 72nd
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 9th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 3rd
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 174th
8k Range
Shane Lowry ($8,000) - This is where I’m hoping to start playing the ownership game and looking to Shane Lowry in this range. He had a terrific swing season that he spent on the DPWT where his worst finish in 6 consecutive starts was a T-13. He missed his cut debuting his 2025 PGA Tour season at The American Express. His Pebble Beach history is pretty good with 5 made cuts in 6 appearances, although he hasn’t teed it up here since 2019. Lowry is a great driver of the golf ball and a very solid iron player. His putter leaves a lot to be desired, but he is a great wind player which, as of right now, is being heavily forecasted. I’m hoping the recent missed cut gives us a low ownership on Lowry this week.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 40th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 53rd
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 12th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 114th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 112th
7k Range
Robert MacIntyre ($7,700) - I’m going with another great wind player for my lineups and turning to Robert MacIntyre here. MacIntyre played the Hawaii opening events on the PGA Tour and finished T15 at The Sentry and T53 at the Sony Open. He then traveled to Dubai where he teed it up on the DPWT and finished T17. This feels like the typical mixed bag of results we saw from him last season where he managed to win twice. He’s never played at Pebble Beach but I don’t think the course history will be too impactful for his DFS value. MacIntyre is a well rounded golfer coming in above average in the 5 main statistical categories and is a great player in the wind. I think his skill set will be valuable in DFS this week.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 30th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 37th
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 113th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 51st
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 35th
6k Range
Lee Hodges ($6,200) - I’m going nearly to the bottom of the barrel this week to play Lee Hodges in DFS. His start to the 2025 PGA Tour season is very strong posting a T10 at the Sony Open, T34 at The American Express, and a T9 last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. His course history is a missed cut in 2022 and a T58 last year in 2024. Hodges brings accuracy off the tee with slightly above average irons. What I love about his recent for is that he’s gained with the putter in each of his 3 starts in the 2025 season which is where he tends to struggle. Also, these aren’t just small gains to the field, we’re talking an average of 1.25 strokes per round. Regardless of where his ownership comes in this week, at this price I think he’s a must play.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 133rd
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 113th
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 29th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 160th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 158th
Outright Betting Card
Jason Day +4000 (Risking 0.25U)
It can be argued that Jason Day’s history at Pebble Beach is up there for any player/course combination. It’s insanely good for lack of better terms. He’s played Pebble Beach 15 times, making the cut in all 15, finishing Top-25 or better in 13 of those, and Top-10 or better in 8 of those. Somehow the win has eluded Jason Day at Pebble Beach but I think this is the year he breaks through. Similar to people’s justification for taking Nick Taylor at the Sony Open which was all based on course history, I’m looking for Day to have the same result here. His start to the 2025 season has been okay with a T40 at The Sentry, T3 at The American Express, and T32 last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. The recent form putting had been pretty poor for Day who over the long term is near elite. I’m hoping his return to a course he’s played his best golf at brings that putter back to life and he finally gets the job done at this course.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 52nd
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 74th
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 152nd
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 55th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 9th
Tom Hoge +9000 (Risking 0.11U)
This is the perfect course for Tom Hoge as he’s a previous winner here back in 2022. His start to the 2025 year has been pretty solid finishing T8 at The Sentry, T45 at the Sony Open, and T29 at The American Express. His recent course history at Pebble Beach has been great with 2 Top-15 finishes and a win in his last 4 starts. Hoge is one of the best wedge players on tour year after year. The putter can be pretty bad but in his 2025 starts he’s gained in 3 straight with the flat stick. The stats are screaming Hollywood Hoge this week and I’m not going to ignore them.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 52nd
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 120th
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 4th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 160th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 93rd
Jordan Spieth +10000 (Risking 0.10U)
Coming off of wrist surgery in the swing season, this is going to be Spieth’s 2025 season debut. That’s the reason the odds are so high but I’m still going to take my chances on another player who plays some great golf at this course. Spieth has won here back in 2017 and hasn’t missed a cut in his 13 appearances. We left Spieth off in 2024 struggling with his game due to this wrist injury he sustained. Over the long term, Spieth is a solid driver of the golf ball and has above average irons. We also all know that he’s very crafty with his around the green play and his ceiling is determined by the putters cooperation. The number was just too good to pass up in a small field event.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 80th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 15th
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 138th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 108th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 101st
Disclaimer
The betting tips and suggestions provided are for informational and entertainment purposes only. There is no guarantee of winning, and outcomes may vary.
Gambling involves financial risk, and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Always gamble responsibly.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional organization or hotline in your area.
Comments