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Writer's pictureJake Friedman (@THEJakeFriedman)

2024 3M Open Outright Betting Guide

By: Jake Friedman

Introduction

The PGA Tour heads from over the pond back to the states for this weeks 3M Open. TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota has hosted the tournament since 2019 and has had a very interesting mix of winners. The past winners here are Lee Hodges in 2023, Tony Finau in 2022, Cameron Champ in 2021, Michael Thompson in 2020 and Matthew Wolff in 2019. 1 favorite and 4 longshots make up the past winners which shows the field is wide open this week for the taking. TPC Twin Cities is a par 71 measuring 7,431 yards. In my opinion, this isn't the most exciting course or tournament, which makes it the perfect stop the week following the final major championship of the season. The aspects of the game I looked at the closest this week were appraoch, driving accuracy, birdie or better, bogey avoidance, putting, and strokes gaines total.


This week I am only going to be doing only an outright betting guide as I'll more than likely be skipping DFS this week. I'm taking a lot of long shots and thought the time to write up each player in the outright market I am playing would be the best use of time. That being said, if you are looking for any DFS advice or are looking for some information, I'm happy to discuss in our discord channel or feel free to shoot me a DM on X. You can join/follow using the links below!




Outright Betting Guide

Sahith Theegala (+3580*) - If you've opened an article of mine in the past or have listened to the podcast you know I'm on Theegala almost every single week. He brings a the ability to win a golf tournament ever single week wether it be a major or a weak field event. He missed the cut last week at The Open Championship which means he got back to the states early to start preparing for TPC Twin Cities. Before his missed cut, Theegala finished T4 at the Genesis Scottish Open. For 2024 season, Theegala has a win during the swing season at the Fortinet and 11 top 20 finishes. Theegala ranks 23rd in strokes gained off the tee, 28th in strokes gained on approach, 118th in strokes gained around the green, 25th in strokes gained putting, and 11th in strokes gained total. The season long stats all align with what I'm looking for this week and in a weaker field, I think Theegala has legitimate win equity this week.


Akshay Bhatia (+4506*) - Another player if you've opened an article of mine in the past or have listened to the podcast you know I'm on almost every single week. Relatively recent winner on the PGA Tour at the Valero Texas Open and playing some incredible golf, Bhatia is my favorite play of the week. He missed the cut last week at The Open Championship in his debut, but I'm willing to forget that given his form leading into last week. He finished T22 at the Memorial, T16 at the U.S. Open, T5 at the Travelers, and T2 at the Rocket Mortgage. Bhatia ranks 40th in strokes gained off the tee, 17th in strokes gained on approach, 113th in strokes gained around the green, 27th in strokes gained putting, and 10th in strokes gained total. With a very similar player profile to Theegala, he has what I'm looking for this week and I think he lifts the trophy come Sunday.


Luke Clanton (+4540*) - This is more of a fear of missing out bet, but Clanton has burst onto the scene of the PGA Tour as an amateur. Although we have a very small sample size, his results are impressive. He finished T10 at the Rocket Mortgage and T2 at the John Deere Classic. I don't have the statistics from the events but in the year 2024 his true strokes gained total is 3.61 strokes per round. Given the boosted odds and recent form, I'm taking my chances in another weak field event that the amateur lifts the trophy on Sunday.


Austin Eckroat (+9000) - This number popped in my model this week and has been steamed down to +6000. The recent form has been pretty bad with his best finish in the last 3 months being a T27 at the Travelers. With that being said, his long term statistics and player profile show that he should be able to find success at a course like this. Eckroat ranks 34th in strokes gained off the tee, 18th in strokes gained on approach, 144th in strokes gained around the green, 133rd in strokes gained putting, and 71st in strokes gained total. Something to hang your hat on is despite the horrible short game numbers on the year, he gained strokes putting in his last appearence at The Open Championship. +9000 was simply too big of a number to pass up on.


J.J. Spaun +11000 - This might be more of a gut play but I really like Spaun this week. His recent form is okay with a T10 at the Rocket Mortgage, T23 at the John Deere, T45 at the ISCO Championship, and T29 at the Barracuda. Overall, some solid finishes in weaker field events over the last 4 starts. At +11000, I think Spaun is a great option in the outright market, especially as a previous PGA Tour winner. Spaun ranks 144th in strokes gained off the tee, 35th in strokes gained on approach, 106th in strokes gained around the green, 117th in strokes gained putting, and 112th in strokes gained total. The season long stats aren't flattering but the driving accuracy has been improved over the past couple weeks and if he can just find the putter, which he's gained stroke with in 2 of his last 4, I think he has some win equity this week.


Seung-Yol Noh +20000 - This was a play purely based on recent form at weak field events. Noh finished T6 at the ISCO Championship and T24 at the Barracuda. Noh has a great short game where he consistently gained strokes around the green and with the putter. Over the longer term he tends to struggle when it comes to driving accuracy and approach, but recently he's been positive with the irons and average when it comes to accuracy off the tee. At +20000 I thought he was worth a shot this week.


Matt Kuchar +25000 - I was on him in his last start at the John Deere where he missed the cut, but he is my favorite long shot play this week. What failed Kuchar in his last start was the putter which is super uncharacteristic. In his form leading into that he had made the cut in 5 of 6, including at the U.S. Open, a T17 at the Charles Schwab, and T25 at the Rocket Mortgage. Kuchar ranks 154th in strokes gained off the tee, 167th in strokes gained on approach, 47th in strokes gained around the green, 23rd in strokes gained putting, and 134th in strokes gained total. The short game is there and in good condition. The reason why I love Kuchar is the main reason he loses a ton off the tee is due to his distance, he is generally a fairway finder which is important this week. Also, the iron numbers on the season are horrible but he's gained with them in his last 4 starts including over a stroke per round in his last start at the John Deere. This was a no brainer outright bet for me.


Adam Schenk (+25000) - Schenk popped in my model at these odds and I coul;dn't hekp but trust it. The recent form is absolutely abysmal. He's made just 1 cut in his last 6 starts. He did have a stretch of very good golf at the beginning of this year highlighted by a T12 at the Masters. We know he has the ability to play good goldf and that's ultimately why I bet him. Schenk ranks 54th in strokes gained off the tee, 155th in strokes gained on approach, 177th in strokes gained around the green, 87th in strokes gained putting, and 128th in strokes gained total. Something I noticed that I loved was that he gained considerably with his irons in his last 2 starts. At the John Deere he gained over a stroke per round on approach and last week at The Open Championship he gained just under 2 strokes per round with them. He's worth a long shot at these odds this week in my opinion.


Henrik Norlander (+27000) - One of the first players that pops into my head when I think of weak field birdie fests, I couldn't help but take Norlander at this number. Coming into this week Norlander finished T11 at the Barracude and T24 at the ISCO Championship. Other weak field birdie fests this year Norlander finished T20 at the Myrtle Beach Classic, T15 at the Puerto Rico Open, and T13 at the Mexico Open. Norlander ranks 118th in strokes gained off the tee, 39th in strokes gained on approach, 140th in strokes gained around the green, 104th in strokes gained putting, and 101st in strokes gained total. The season long numbers aren't great but Norlander is consistently in the fairway and positive with the irons. If he can catch a hot putter I love his chances at these long odds this week.


Kevin Chappell (+50000) - My dark horse for the week is Chappell. Simply based off of recent form, I couldn't help myself at these odds. He finished T25 at the ISCO Championship where he was at the top of the leaderboard at one point, and T17 last week at the Barracuda Championship. His long term statistics show an average driving distance and putter with the rest of his game below average. With that being said, the putter has been rolling the last 2 weeks and he's gained off the tee as well. If he can get the irons to click I think he has the capability of winning this tournament this week.


*Boosted or parlayed odds


Good luck in all your action this week and please remember to gamble responsibly!

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