15 MLB Offseason Moves that Will Impact Fantasy Baseball
- Connor Peterson
- Mar 17
- 10 min read
The end of the NFL season signifies, for some, the beginning of fantasy baseball draft prep season. I certainly don’t expect the majority of even the most avid fantasy baseball players to stay tuned in for the entire offseason. It's incredibly long, and an incredibly slow burn. But it is burning.
And alas, while only a few were watching- truly paying attention, Major League Baseball had itself quite a winter. From superstar free agent signings, to blockbuster trades and the ripple effect of the moves and comments that followed (yes I'm talking about you, Rafael Devers,) there is a TON to unpack with how the last few months of activity will shape the fantasy landscape for the upcoming 2025 season.
The format: I’ve ranked the top MLB offseason moves here from a fantasy perspective- not factoring in the impact to the team or the league in real life. For example: Corbin Burnes signed a 6-year, $210 million deal with the DBacks. It solidifies Arizona as a World Series contender, and leaves a massive hole in the Orioles’ rotation, but I don’t see it moving the needle for any involved parties dramatically, from a fantasy perspective. The team context is similar, and the parks play similarly for hitters. So I’m viewing Corbin Burnes about the same as I did before free agency. Therefore, it sits all the way down at 15. (Spoiler!) Without further ado, let’s get into it.
Roki Sasaki signs with the Dodgers
If you were living under a rock AND didn’t have cell service, a new Japanese wonderkind has entered the MLB scene. And when a player with this kind of ceiling joins the fantasy baseball landscape (currently going as SP23 on NFBC) it instantly becomes the most impactful move of the offseason. It helps that he landed in a perfect spot for pitcher development with the Dodgers, just be wary of an innings limit in year one.
Juan Soto signs with the Mets
Uncle Stevie did it again. What a world we’re living in, where the Mets beat out the YANKEES for a big free agent signing. It actually shook the Bronx brass so hard, it forced them to walk back their generations old facial hair tradition! This is of course an upgrade for Lindor, Alonso, and the Mets lineup altogether, and a downgrade for the Yankees lineup. I’d also throw in a slight downgrade to Soto's power output leaving Yankee stadium, but he's still a stud.
Alex Bregman to Boston
Bregman's career OPS at Fenway is over 1.200. Pause. It’s obviously unsustainable, but the park just fits his swing so well. The biggest perk though? He'll likely pick up 2B eligibility after a week, with Devers manning 3rd in Boston. He’s the 10th 3B off the board on average in NFBC drafts so far, but I’d expect that to rise a bit with the news taking some time to bake in. I have him at 7th personally, ahead of Caminero, Chapman, and Royce Lewis. But with the depth available at 3B, you’re much more likely to play him at 2nd, if it’s on the table. He’d come in at #6 for me, once eligible, and I see a pretty steep drop off at the position after that, with the likes of Luis Garcia, Brice Turang, and Xander Bogaerts following behind.
Kyle Tucker traded to Cubs
The trade itself was massive, but oddly doesn’t seem like it had the ripple effects you’d expect when a top 10 player is moved. Tucker will be shifting to a slightly bigger park which may negatively impact power a tad, and he’ll join a lineup that's probably worse than Houston's last year. It's not necessarily what you'd want to see from your 1st round pick, but it's not a killer either.
Isaac Paredes traded to Astros
Arguably the bigger factor in the deal, is Paredes now moves to a park which suits his swing SIGNIFICANTLY better than Wrigley. Take one look at Isaac's spray chart, and you'll see he pulls the ball harder than almost anyone in baseball. He just doesn't have the exit velo to get the ball out any other way. Innovative! Genius, even! So the natural thing to do, one would assume, is to find him a place to play with a short left field fence, right? Tropicana (his old park) fit that mold perfectly- 315 to the pole. Likely a huge part of why he was able to hit 31 HRs in 2023, and 16 through 101 games in 2024. How many did he hit after moving to Wrigley, where the pole is a full 40 feet back, you ask? Three (3). But good news! He doesn’t have to play a single game there this year. And to boot, Minute Maid is also just 315 to left, with the Crawford Boxes holding that number almost all the way to left center. You could make a legitimate argument that when this park was built in 2000, just a year after Isaac was born, it was with the intention of Paredes hitting there for the prime of his career. Stock up BIG TIME for the boy.
Bellinger traded to Yankees
What was said for Paredes, can very similarly be said for Bellinger. The short porch in right at Yankee Stadium is certainly no secret- it gives up the 9th most HRs to left-handed hitters of any park in baseball. And Bellinger, like Paredes, finds his power pulling the ball. His spray chart isn’t as concentrated as Paredes’s, but there’s no question his power will be maximized in the Bronx. What’s interesting, though, is that while Bellinger would have hit 9 more HRs if he played every game at Yankee Stadium last year (vs Wrigley), he would have only hit 2 more total over the course of his entire career. This move is good for Bellinger, and the Yankees, but be careful not to overrate this one. Expect 25 HRs, not the 47 he hit back in 2019.
Garrett Crochet switches Sox
All the skepticism and injury concerns aside, the move OUT of that god forsaken White Sox franchise, and into a playoff contender in Boston, is massive for Crochet’s upside. The Red Sox might win 50 more games than their White counterpart, and in turn Crochet could double up (or more) his 6 wins from last season. A small sidenote on this deal, is that it sent Red Sox top catching prospect Kyle Teel to Chicago, where he could end up starting for the big club sooner than later. I’d boost his stock just a tad if your league factors in that level of prospect, or catcher depth.
Willy Adames signs monster deal with SF
Adames was one of the first free agents off the board, signing a whopping 7-year, $182 million contract with the Giants. Listen, he’s 29 years old coming off a career year, so I get it. But nevertheless, damn SF. Many would have projected some regression for Adames either way, given that he set career highs in almost every key statistic in 2024. But factoring in the park downgrade (projected 33 less HRs at Oracle over the course of his career vs Miller Park), and the lineup downgrade, this move does knock Adames’s value down a bit. Roster resource has him batting second behind Lamonte Wade and ahead of Jung Hoo Lee and Matt Chapman. Compare that to a cleanup spot behind Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich, and William Contreras, and it’s pretty clear why so many are viewing Adames as a bust candidate this year.
Jesus Luzardo traded to Phillies
Like Crochet, Luzardo will get a pretty solid team upgrade this year, climbing the entire length of the NL East from Marlins to Phillies (+37 wins). No matter how you feel about Luzardo, you have to feel a little better about him after the move.
Blake Snell joins the NL’s evil empire
This is a weird one. On one hand, the Dodgers are an upgrade over literally every team in baseball, and most by a wide margin. The 18 game difference between Snell’s former squad doesn’t seem so crazy compared to the two guys above, but it is certainly a boost for Snell. On the other hand, the Dodgers will run a 6 man rotation, meaning a lower ceiling for innings, and minimal opportunity for a 2 start week. And on the third hand, if it helps him stay healthy, maybe the extra day off will ultimately be a benefit? The tiebreaker for me is that the Dodgers have become one of the best in the league at maximizing pitcher talent, which leads me to believe Snell has a great year coming ahead.
Devin Williams traded to Yanks
This is definitely a more impactful real-life move than it is for fantasy. The Yanks have been desperate for a reliable closer, arguably dating back to Mariano Rivera. And the struggles in the ‘Pen have really come to a head in the last few years. But it doesn’t get any better than Devin Williams, who they acquired in exchange for Nestor Cortes and INF Caleb Durbin. The fantasy impact won’t be all that significant, however- the Yankees won a single game more than the Brewers in 2024.
The ripple effects: Trevor Megill is projected to close for Brewers: 21 saves, 2.72 ERA in 2024; Clay Holmes signed with the Mets, and will apparently be converted to a starter. An interesting move, to say the least.
Flaherty returns to Detroit
See: Crochet, Luzardo, Snell, but reverse it. Flaherty goes from the Dodgers back to the Tigers, where he found a resurgence in his career in the first half of 2024. Clearly he feels comfortable there, and/or their pitching staff figured out how to fix him. So this isn’t ultimately the worst move for him, even if his win total projection is guaranteed to come down a few ticks. It is worth noting the Tigers were a (surprising) playoff team last year, but I don’t think many expect them to return. Stock down very slightly for Flaherty with this move.
Max Fried signs with Yankees
As I mentioned at the top, big names signing for big money doesn’t mean the move impacts fantasy all that much, and Fried is another perfect example. The clear consolation to Juan Soto, the Yankees signed Fried to an 8-year, $218 million deal. Shifting from a top NL contender, to the reigning AL pennant champs won’t impact Fried’s win total much, if at all. He also fits the park pretty well: Fried’s 96th percentile ground ball rate, coupled with his ability to reduce hard contact (95th percentile avg exit velo), should nullify the move to a more hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Statcast projects only 4 more HRs would have been hit off of him had he played every game in Yankee Stadium as opposed to Truist Park in 2024. Expect more of the same from Fried in 2025 if he can handle the pressure in the Bronx.
Alonso re-signs with Mets
I have to say, the whole saga with Alonso in free agency came as quite a shock to me. He’s still just 30 years old, and hit 46 HRs 2 years ago. Yes, the 34 he hit in 2024 could be a sign of a degrading skill set, but none of the underlying metrics really back that theory up. His bat speed is virtually identical YoY, his hard-hit % increased 6 points, and he actually had a higher average exit velocity than in his career year in 2023. The only thing that appears to be different than years past is his launch angle, which seems fixable. And yet, no one was willing to offer him a long term contract. The rumors had it that the longest anyone was willing to go was 3 years, due to skepticism of his skill set translating to the latter half of his career. Regardless, Alonso appears to have bet on himself, as this deal with the Mets includes an opt out after this season, where he can test the market again. Perhaps he’ll play with a chip on his shoulder, and return to 40+ HR form? Either way he’ll be hitting behind Juan Soto, which as mentioned above, is obviously a plus. Stock up for the Polar Bear, and the Mets lineup.
Corbin Burnes signs with DBacks
See: intro. This is a huge move for the DBacks, and a blow to the Orioles pitching staff. But status remains quo for the ace. Keep an eye on the K rate though, 2024 was the lowest of his career.
Other Notable Woves
Christian Walker signs with Astros: stock overall neutral, but power upgrades, and R/RBI downgrades.
Josh Naylor traded to DBacks: slight upgrade for team context, slight downgrade for power.
Tanner Scott signs with Dodgers: massive upgrade for Scott IF he becomes the every day closer, which is still up in the air. Dave Roberts made it sound like he’ll get the first crack, but there are too many studs in that bullpen (Kirby Yates for example) to be confident that will be the case. In a S+H league, stock is way up regardless.
Kenley Jansen signs with Angels: downgrade for team context, but he will still be an everyday closer, which wasn’t a sure thing entering his age-37 season.
Aroldis Chapman signs with Red Sox: also entering his age-37 season, Chapman is no lock to pitch the 9th for the Sox, but “he will be a huge piece of preserving leads late in the game” per Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow. Stock up in S+H leagues, needle hasn’t moved in pure saves leagues.
Yusei Kikuchi signs with Angels: stock down for team context, hopefully he can continue the strides he made in a few months with Houston.
Jonathan India traded to Royals: this one has a few implications, but none of them major for fantasy leagues. India leaves one of the best hitters parks, to join one of the toughest- for power, at least. Which is something India already struggled with. So stock down there, but you weren’t really counting on him for that anyways. He will hit atop a sneaky solid lineup with Bobby Witt and Salvador Perez right behind him, and Kauffman has been known to improve batting average, even if it does prevent the long ball. Expect more runs, and a better average from India. The impact in Cincy, is that Matt McLain now has second base wide open if he can stay healthy, and leaves the DH spot more available for the likes of Encarnacion-Strand, Candelario, or Noelvi Marte, whichever is the odd one out of the corner infield battles.
Nick Pivetta signs with Padres: stock up for park, neutral team context.
Gleyber Torres signs with Tigers: stock down for team context.
Walker Buehler signs with Red Sox: Couple Interesting things here. #1, he is one of the few cases where leaving the Dodgers is potentially helpful. He would have been part of a 6 man rotation in LA, and honestly may have gotten bumped out entirely given their incredible depth at the position. In Boston, he’ll have a strong chance to earn a rotation spot, and for a team with playoff aspirations. And #2, Andrew Bailey (Red Sox pitching coach) has quietly made a name for himself turning around pitchers careers: Nick Pivetta being the most notable case. And at 30 years old, Buehler may still have some left in the tank. He’s a deep sleeper, but his stock is on the rise.
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